WTI rises from 17-month low on fed; Brent steady in bear market
By Bloomberg
West Texas Intermediate crude rose from a 17-month low on bets that monetary policies in the largest economies will remain expansionary. Brent was steady after entering a bear market yesterday on concern global supplies will exceed demand.
WTI advanced as much as 0.7 percent in New York. The dollar fell for a fourth day, bolstering the appeal of commodities, after minutes released yesterday from the Federal Reserve's September meeting showed concern about risks in a stronger currency. Brent was little changed after settling more than 20 percent below its recent peak, meeting a common definition of a bear market.
"I believe we'll see rising oil prices from this low point," Frank Klumpp, an analyst at Landesbank Baden- Wuerttemberg, said by e-mail. "It just illustrates that we are in a very oversold area now for Brent, that it's reached this technical definition of a bear market, but what's more important is the supply and demand situation."
WTI for November delivery advanced as much as 64 cents to $87.95 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and traded for $87.43 at 10:33 a.m. London time. The contract slid $1.54 to $87.31 yesterday, the lowest close since April 2013. The volume of all futures traded was 14 percent above the 100-day average.
Brent for November settlement was 11 cents lower at $91.27 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $3.86 to WTI. The spread closed at $4.07 yesterday, the widest in two weeks.
Global Supplies
The dollar slid 0.4 percent to $1.2770 per euro and touched $1.2791, the weakest level since Sept. 24. A number of officials said the U.S. expansion "might be slower than they expected if foreign economic growth came in weaker than anticipated," according to minutes of the Sept. 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released yesterday in Washington.
WTI has declined 11 percent this year amid accelerating output from producers including the U.S. and Russia.
U.S. production increased to 8.88 million barrels a day in the week ended Oct. 3, the most since March 1986, according to the EIA, the Energy Department's statistical arm. Crude inventories expanded to 361.7 million, compared with a five-year average of 355 million.
U.S. Data
U.S. crude inventories expanded by 5 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration reported yesterday, exceeding a 2 million increase projected in a Bloomberg News survey. Gasoline stockpiles rose by 1.18 million barrels to 209.7 million last week, the EIA said. Distillates, including heating oil and diesel, climbed by 439,000 barrels to 126.1 million.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies about 40 percent of the world's crude, pumped 30.935 million barrels a day in September, a Bloomberg survey of producers and analysts show. That's the highest level in 13 months. signals that the market is oversold. Brent's reading is below that threshold for an eighth day.
The world's economy will grow by 3.8 percent in 2015, the International Monetary Fund said on Oct. 7., compared with a July forecast of 4 percent. Global oil consumption will gain 1.3 percent to 93.8 million barrels a day next year, the International Energy Agency said on Sept. 11, reducing its estimate by 165,000 a day.
WTI's 14-day relative strength index is at about 34, compared with 32.1 yesterday, the lowest level since Aug. 25, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Investors typically buy futures when the RSI drops to less than 30, which
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