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Dollar climbs to 6-year high versus yen on fed bets; Pound Rises

19 September 2014 15:19 (UTC+04:00)
Dollar climbs to 6-year high versus yen on fed bets; Pound Rises
By Bloomberg

The dollar climbed to a six-year high versus the yen as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates, diverging from its Japanese peer. The pound rose after voters in Scotland rejected independence.

A gauge of the U.S. currency versus major counterparts was set to climb for a fifth week and Treasuries fell after the Fed raised its target interest-rate forecast. The pound touched the strongest level in more than two years versus the euro as 55 percent of Scottish voters supported the "no" campaign compared with 45 percent who backed separation from the U.K., a wider margin of victory than suggested in opinion polls.

"The risks are that it keeps rising," Peter Dragicevich, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in London, said of the dollar. "The momentum is building, particularly given the outlook for the Fed and higher U.S. rates, which are generally appealing for Japanese investors."

The dollar added 0.2 percent to 108.90 yen at 6:56 a.m. New York time after touching 109.46, the highest since August 2008. It has climbed 1.5 percent since Sept. 12, set to rise for a sixth week, the longest advance this year. The greenback increased 0.5 percent to $1.2863 per euro, 0.8 percent stronger this week. The yen rose 0.3 percent to 140.09 per euro.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major currencies, has risen 0.4 percent since Sept. 12, set for a fifth-straight week of gains that's the longest stretch since March 2013. Treasury 10-year yields touched 2.65 percent, the highest since July 7.

Rate Projections

Fed officials who met on Sept. 16-17 increased their median estimate for the federal funds rate to 1.375 percent at the end of next year, versus June's forecast for 1.125 percent.

There's an about 80 percent chance the U.S. central bank will raise its target for overnight lending between banks by its September 2015 meeting, futures data compiled by Bloomberg showed yesterday. That's up from a 73 percent chance on Aug. 29. The target rate has been in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since 2008 to support the economy.

"We're likely to see broad-based U.S. dollar strength," said Su-Lin Ong, head of Australian economic and fixed-income strategy at Royal Bank of Canada in Sydney. The question is: "Are we at a bit of a turning point in terms of Fed policy and U.S. yields?" she said.

Yen Slide

The yen was set to post a five-day decline against its 16 main counterparts after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said yesterday in Tokyo that policy makers won't hesitate to adjust policy if needed. The central bank kept a pledge to increase the monetary base at an annual pace of 60 trillion yen ($550 billion) to 70 trillion yen at a gathering this month. It next meets on Oct. 6-7.

Speculation the nation's Government Pension Investment Fund will put more of its $1.2 trillion into stocks and overseas assets also weighed on the yen. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe today said the fund should review its asset allocations as soon as possible.

The dollar has risen 2.9 percent in the past month, the best performer among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen has lost 3.4 percent, the biggest decline. The euro has fallen 1 percent.

The pound strengthened versus most of its 16 major counterparts after the declaration of the referendum result. The nation saw a record turnout of more than 90 percent in some regions.

Not Close

"In the end, the Scottish result was not even close," Neil Jones, the head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in London, said in an e-mailed comment. "The global markets' confidence in the U.K. economy will likely be restored and regenerate demand for domestic companies and assets. The long- run pound-appreciation trend should continue."

The pound advanced 0.4 percent to 78.53 pence per euro after appreciating to 78.10 pence, the strongest since July 2012. It was little changed at $1.6382 after climbing to $1.6525, the highest since Sept. 2.

Australia's dollar slid to as low as 89.30 U.S. cents, within 0.04 percent of the weakest level since March 12.

"In the current dollar-strength environment, we see downside risks building for the high-beta currencies," Morgan Stanley analysts in London led by Hans Redeker, head of global currency strategy, wrote in an e-mailed note today.

If the Aussie falls below 89.27 U.S. cents it would increase the risk of it dropping to 86 U.S. cents, the lowest level since July 2010, the analysts wrote.

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