Dollar gains fourth day as Aussie Bonds fall; Wheat, Gold Slide
By Bloomberg
The dollar rose a fourth day, reaching an almost-six-year high against the yen, as weaker- than-expected price data in China highlighted diverging outlooks for the world's biggest economies. Australian bonds dropped after a record jump in employment, and wheat fell with gold.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.1 percent by 7:19 a.m. in London as the greenback bought as many as 107.04 yen, the most since Sept. 22, 2008. Stocks in Hong Kong and Shanghai fluctuated after China's inflation slowed to 2 percent in August. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures fell 0.1 percent and contracts on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index added 0.2 percent. The yield on 10-year Australian bonds climbed four basis points. Wheat dropped to the lowest level since 2010. Gold traded near the weakest since June.
The dollar rallied 4.5 percent this quarter amid speculation that data justify sooner-than-anticipated Federal Reserve rate increases while the economies of China, Japan and Europe require additional support. Chinese producer prices fell 1.2 percent in August, more than the 1.1 percent slip forecast in Bloomberg surveys. A jump in part-time positions swelled Australian employment by 121,000 last month, more than eight times the 15,000 increase predicted by economists.
"The U.S. economy appears to be picking up speed and as monetary policy between the U.S. and other nations differ, the dollar stands to benefit," Zhu Runyu, an analyst at CITICS Futures Co., a unit of China's biggest listed brokerage, wrote in an e-mail. "Geopolitical tensions may flare from time to time but it appears to be easing for now."
Yen, Kiwi
The yen fell 0.1 percent to 106.95 per dollar, after dropping to as low as 106.89 per dollar yesterday, the weakest intraday level since Sept. 29, 2008. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major peers, was at 1,048.25 after adding 0.2 percent last session to a 14- month high.
The kiwi slipped 0.5 percent to 81.84 U.S. cents, the lowest level since February. The RBNZ signaled today that rates, which have been raised four times this year, will be on hold until 2015 as the currency's strength helps damp inflation and as economic growth starts to slow. RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler had labeled the currency's level as unjustified and unsustainable in June.
Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes dropped one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.53 percent, after climbing four basis points yesterday in a fifth rising day.
Rate Bets
Traders have been bringing forward bets for when the Fed will begin raising U.S. interest rates. There was a 79 percent chance of an increase to at least 0.5 percent by September 2015, federal fund futures data showed Sept. 9. That compares with the 73 percent probability recorded for Aug. 29.
Policy makers, who next meet Sept. 16-17, have kept their target for overnight lending between banks in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.
The Australian dollar bought 91.75 U.S. cents, rising as much as 0.7 percent to 92.18 cents after the jobs data was released. The S&P/ASX 200 Index slumped 0.5 percent in Sydney while Australian bonds due in a decade yielded 3.61 percent, up four basis points.
"The Aussie, which has been sold recently, reacted positively to the jobs data," said Kengo Suzuki, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. "The employment numbers look very strong, exceeding economists' forecasts and signaling tightening in the labor market."
China Stocks
The Australian Bureau of Statistics "extensively checked" the August jobs data because of the "unusually strong" increase in employment estimates, it said in a statement. The number of full-time jobs rose by 14,300 in August, and part-time employment jumped by 106,700, today's report showed.
The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.4 percent after rising as much as 1.1 percent amid speculation the slower price gains allow room for more stimulus. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks shares of Chinese companies in Hong Kong, dropped 0.6 percent after plunging 2.6 percent yesterday.
The consumer price index rose 2 percent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing today, compared with the 2.2 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey and 2.3 percent in July. Today's data add to signs of weakness in domestic demand after figures this week showed declining imports and a slowdown in money-supply expansion, bolstering the case for additional measures to support the economy.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 rebounded yesterday after falling more than 0.3 percent on each of the previous two days. Apple Inc. rose 3.1 percent to drive a 0.8 percent increase in the Nasdaq 100 Index. The Cupertino, California-based company rallied a day after introducing new products including smartphones, a watch and an online payments processor. The stock slipped 0.4 percent Sept. 9.
West Texas Intermediate crude added 0.1 percent to $91.54 a barrel today after falling 1.2 percent to $91.67 last session, the lowest settlement price since January. Brent crude was little changed at $98 a barrel, trading below $100 a barrel for a fourth day.
OPEC reduced forecasts for the amount of crude it will need to supply by the most in at least three years as surging North American shale output reduces reliance on the group's supplies. Crude prices are poised to drop next year as American production climbs to a 45-year high, the Energy Information Administration said Sept. 9.
Wheat futures for December delivery declined a fourth day, dropping 0.4 percent to $5.1625 a bushel and touching the lowest price since July 2010. Corn and soybeans fell 0.6 percent to trade near four-year lows.
Gold slipped 0.2 percent to $1,247.23 an ounce and silver for immediate delivery retreated 0.3 percent to $18.9039.
--With assistance from Daniel Petrie in Sydney, Emma O'Brien in Wellington and Kana Nishizawa in Hong Kong.
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