Europe’s economic groupthink
By Hans-Helmut Kotz
Senior fellow at the Center for Financial Studies, Goethe University, Frankfurt, and a resident faculty associate of Harvard University's Center for European Studies, was a member of the board of Deutsche Bundesbank from 2002 to 2010.
During the recent hearing on the constitutionality of the
European Central Bank's measures to prevent the eurozone from
falling apart, Andreas Vosskuhle, President of Germany's
Constitutional Court, raised an important question: Do non-German
economists condemn the ECB's outright monetary transactions (OMT)
as unequivocally as all but one of the German experts
testifying?
Of course, there are German economists (not to mention Chancellor
Angela Merkel's government) who support ECB President Mario
Draghi's policies. Still, an overwhelming majority of German (and
possibly Dutch and Finnish) economists seem to favor keeping the
ECB on the sidelines in the eurozone crisis. It's a fiscal issue,
the typical German economist says, and monetary policy will not
help; on the contrary, activating it will only make matters
worse.
Of course, everyone would prefer it if the line between monetary
and fiscal policy had not become blurred as a result of the crisis.
But blindly sticking to principle would have been a highly risky
option for the ECB. It would have meant accepting in 2012 what has
been called "redenomination risk" - economic newspeak for a
eurozone breakup.
Nonetheless, by launching its OMT scheme, the ECB has committed
German (and other northern European) taxpayers, without their
parliaments' approval, to a potential obligation to bail out -
well, whom, exactly? Indeed, it appears that the typical northern
European taxpayer supports the typical stakeholder in northern
European banks that are over-exposed to southern European
debtors.
Likewise, German legal scholars interpret the ECB's activities as
being incompatible with European treaty provisions that prohibit
bailouts and monetary financing of the debt of eurozone members.
And one can easily understand civil servants' strong reluctance to
disregard legal obligations and risk criminal liability for breach
of trust.
Germany's Constitutional Court, of course, does not write the
rules. But its obligation is to render a dispassionate reading of
legal agreements, and it is renowned for doing so, which is one
reason why it is the country's most trusted institution.
Nonetheless, the ECB is right that it is faced with very different
monetary conditions in different member states; indeed, the
eurozone is akin to a badly working fixed-exchange-rate system,
with all of the attendant risks. Ultimately, limiting the ECB to
its conventional tool kit amounts to accepting the risk of a
eurozone collapse.
Against this backdrop, institutional investors self-insured - quite
rationally - against a eurozone breakup by withdrawing behind safer
borders. With fiscal policy incapable of responding, the ECB was
stuck with a second intermediation role: mitigating with its
Target2 system the effects of European financial markets
re-segmenting along national lines. This is fiscal dominance in its
purest form.
It is here that Vosskuhle's question matters the most. Debates
within eurozone member states typically converge on what legal
scholars call herrschende Meinung ("dominant opinion"), which, in
turn, appears to reflect their countries' status as creditors or
debtors. Reinforcing this, the typical career-conscious economist
has little incentive to deviate. The media are no remedy, as
competition for ratings forces them to favor oversimplification
over differentiation, complexity, and nuance.
In terms of substance - which the German Constitutional Court
explicitly and intentionally avoids - the case for OMT has always
been about preventing a liquidity crisis from morphing into a
solvency problem, especially on the eurozone's periphery. From an
investor's perspective, the mechanics of this are simple: all are
reluctant to hold private or public debt from a country that is
vulnerable to redenomination. This by itself creates a rollover
risk, which is why, for example, a small firm in Bozen (Bolzano, in
Italy's South Tyrol) is subject to higher financing costs than its
competitor in Innsbruck (in Austria's northern Tyrol).
The OMT scheme's success depends on an unlimited capacity to
intervene - to do "whatever it takes," as Draghi famously put it.
Legally constraining this capacity would be self-defeating. So, if
the OMT scheme is not feasible under current treaty provisions,
these provisions - which, after all, are of human, not divine,
origin - must be amended.
But a treaty change would require engaging the European public -
and, in several member states, submitting the proposed revisions to
popular referenda. Given how often such referenda have been
defeated in recent years - for example, in France, the Netherlands,
and Ireland - that is a scenario that everyone wants to avoid.
What is dispiriting is that we ponder these arguments so
infrequently. In fact, the minimal prerequisites for a working
monetary union are not discussed upfront and transparently
anywhere. With politicians focused on the median voter, and a
groupthink-generating media, the eurozone muddles through, just
barely surviving.
But, if the eurozone is to be a sensible long-term proposition,
mere survival is not enough. The main justification for a monetary
union cannot be the possibly disastrous consequences of its falling
apart. Even less convincing is the neo-mercantilist point that the
eurozone would allow for indefinite current-account surpluses (it
does not).
Originally, Europe's monetary union was supposed to provide a
stable framework for its deeply integrated economies to enhance
living standards sustainably. It still can. But this requires
acknowledging what the crisis has revealed: the eurozone's
institutional flaws. Remedying them calls for a minimum of
federalism and commensurate democratic legitimacy - and thus for
greater openness to institutional adaptation.
Copyrights: Project Syndicate
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