Azernews.Az

The South East Europe Pipeline (SEEP) project remains a strong contender in a race to transport Azerbaijani gas to Central European countries and has more chances to win the competition with Nabucco gas pipeline project, analysts believe.

According to political risk analyst at Menas Associates in London, focusing on the Caspian energy and political issues, Alexander Jackson, the consortium developing Azerbaijani Shah Deniz field is very unlikely to choose Nabucco project, which is currently suffering a lack of political and commercial support.

``SEEP remains the strongest contender,`` Jackson wrote in an e-mail to Trend news agency.

The Shah Deniz consortium, which currently considers several routes to export gas to European markets, waits for the formal submission from the projects on Central European pipeline route by May 16. For this route the consortium considers two options - SEEP and Nabucco West, which envisages the construction of a pipeline from the Turkish-Bulgarian border to the Austrian Baumgarten. The choice between these two projects will be made in June.

The final decision on a pipeline route to export Azerbaijani gas to Europe is expected in 2013.

Professor of International Relations at the American University of Paris, Terence Murphy, also believes that SEEP, proposed by BP, has more chances to be chosen by the Shah Deniz consortium.

``I think that MOL`s withdrawal from the Nabucco project is just a sensible recognition that Nabucco is not going to happen,`` Murphy told Trend in an e-mail.

He stressed that Nabucco West is a revamped project, and Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) dealt a dead blow to the original concept of the project.

SEEP envisages gas transportation through existing or expanded infrastructure of Turkey to the Balkan Peninsula, and then the distribution of 10 billion cubic meters to small buyers, including Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia and others via the existing gas pipeline system.

Nabucco pipeline project is designed to transport gas from the Caspian region and Middle East to European countries. Hungarian MOL, which is a 100-percent owner of FGSZ Natural Gas Transmission Company, one of the six shareholders in the Nabucco consortium, raised serious doubts about the project and said it is ready to sell its share in it.

The project`s other partners include Bulgarian Energy Holding, Romanian Transgaz, Turkish Botas, Austrian OMV and German RWE.