Crude rises on quantitative easing expectations
SINGAPORE – Crude oil futures rose Monday in Asia as the U.S. dollar weakened and regional equity markets strengthened, with investors betting the Federal Reserve will announce fresh measures to stimulate the U.S. economy at its next meeting.
Expectations that the Fed will announce quantitative-easing asset buying has boosted Asian equity markets and sent the U.S. currency to a 15-year low against the Japanese yen, making commodities priced in dollars cheaper for investors.
"The U.S. dollar has weakened tremendously, and the inverse relationship has now come back to the fore," said Victor Shum, an analyst at Purvin & Gertz in Singapore, referring to crude's tendency to rise when the dollar falls. "The expected quantitative easing from the U.S. Fed is driving a lot of investors' money into oil futures," he added.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November traded at $83.26 a barrel at 0635 GMT, up 60 cents in the Globex electronic session. November Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange rose 40 cents to $84.43 a barrel.
The focus on quantitative easing has largely overshadowed bearish fundamentals for oil.
The U.S. Labor Department said Friday that U.S. non-farm payrolls fell by 95,000 jobs in September, greater than a loss of 10,000 jobs economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires forecast on average.
Analysts led by Stephen Schork said the "less than stellar" jobs data shouldn't be a strong buy signal. "Given the continued laggard recovery, and increasing inventory levels, the bulls are suffering from the 'three steps forward, two steps back' principle," they wrote in a subscriber note.
However, the poor data appears to be the reason behind renewed expectations of quantitative easing, Purvin & Gertz's Shum said. "It's funny how poor economic data can sometimes turn into positive drivers for equities and oil," he said.
Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for November – the benchmark gasoline contract--rose 116 points to $2.1628 a gallon, while November heating oil traded at $2.2895, 76 points higher.
ICE gasoil for October changed hands at $723.75 a metric ton, up $2.00 from Friday's settlement.
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