OPEC expects global energy demand to jump by 40 pct
By Gunay Camal
Global energy demand is expected to increase by 40 percent to 382.1 million barrels oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) by 2040, according to OPEC's World Oil Outlook for 2016 revealed on November 8.
OPEC released its outlook for 2016, examining the main drivers of global energy demand and revealed its projections for oil markets in the medium to long term up to 2040.
The report shows fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix with a 77 percent share by 2040. Out of global energy demand, natural gas is expected to have one of the largest shares, making up 27 percent by 2040. Oil is projected to follow with 26 percent and coal with 24 percent.
Total share of renewable will be 17 percent and nuclear will make up 6 percent of global energy demand.
The organization's report asserts that the rise in energy demand will come mainly from developing countries, which will account for 63 percent by 2040.
In 2040, energy demand of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries will reach 30 percent while Eurasia will make up 7 percent of global energy demand.
The average price for crude will reach $155 per barrel in nominal terms by 2040, which is the equivalent of $92 in real prices in 2015, according to the report.
The producer group assumes that the price for the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) will be around $40 this year. The price recovery will continue with $5 increments every year, reaching over $60 a barrel up to 2021.
OPEC experts say the crude market has continued to readjust to the changing industry landscape since January, when prices fell to $27 per barrel. Since then, they have rebounded to the current $45-$50.
The global demand for crude in the medium-term is expected to increase up to 99.2 million barrels a day (mbpd) by 2021.
According to long-term projections, demand will rise by 16.4 percent in 2015-2040 to reach 109.4 mbpd.
“Global oil demand growth comes mainly from the road transportation sector, petrochemicals and aviation,” the report says.
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