Azernews.Az

By Rashid Shirinov

Renewed conflicts in the South Caucasus could threaten Turkey and other NATO allies of the U.S. in the Black Sea region, said an analytical paper “U.S. Policy Toward the South Caucasus” by the Carnegie Center, one of the most influential analytical centers in the world.

Conflict and general destabilization of the South Caucasus could turn it into a conduit for fighters transiting to or from the Middle East to join the conflicts in Syria or Iraq, or those returning to Central Asia or North Caucasus, the report stated.

The authors of the paper believe that preventing any one of the region’s frozen conflicts from escalating into hostilities should remain the top priority for U.S. policy in the South Caucasus.

“The brief resumption of hostilities last year between Azerbaijan and Armenia highlighted the danger these conflicts pose to regional security and U.S. interests, and therefore this objective should be at the top of the list for U.S. diplomacy in the region,” the Carnegie Center noted.

The Center also stated that renewed hostilities would endanger the lives of many civilians, put at risk important infrastructure, possibly result in serious environmental damage, and affect not only the two warring parties but also Georgia, whose fortunes are closely tied to those of its neighbors.

“Active U.S. diplomacy to prevent the resumption of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict through the Minsk process and bilaterally with each of the parties is essential,” the paper noted.

The Carnegie Center suggested that if fighting breaks out again, Russia and Turkey would be involved indirectly, and quite possibly directly, due to their respective ties to Armenia and Azerbaijan.

“Depending on the course of the conflict, Iran too could become involved. The conflict could conceivably become a secondary theater to the conflict in Syria, where Iran and Russia are pursing different objectives than Turkey,” wrote the authors of the report.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. As a result of the ensuing war, in 1992 Armenian armed forces occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding regions. More than 20,000 Azerbaijanis were killed and over 1 million were displaced as a result of the large-scale hostilities. The 1994 ceasefire agreement was followed by peace negotiations.

Armenia still controls fifth part of Azerbaijan's territory and rejects implementing four UN Security Council resolutions on withdrawal of its armed forces from Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding districts.

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Rashid Shirinov is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @RashidShirinov

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