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Qabil Ashirov

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The relationship between Armenia and Russia is getting tense. In an interview with Italian media, Pashinyan lashed out at Russia and called it a big mistake to rely on Russia. Later, Armenia recalled its permanent representative in the CSTO. Meanwhile, the Spokeswoman of Russian Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova, and the Press Secretary of Russian President Sergeyevich Peskov slammed Pashinyan. It seems that the relationship between Russia and Armenia has entered a deadlock.

However, the Economist, and politician Natig Jafarly told in a comment to AZERNEWS that it is an illusion. He called the happenings a mutual combat.

“I don't believe in Armenia-Russia "tension", it looks like a mutual combat. Despite being pro-West, Pashinyan is not stupid. He knows well the level of his country's dependence on Russia and the steps that Moscow can take. It is well-known who gunned the Armenian parliament, and in addition, Russia has a military base in Armenia, and it controls all power structures and economy of Armenia,” he said.

Natig Jafarly opined that Russia is deliberately overrates Pashinyan's "political price" in the West. He pointed out that in the wake of the Ukraine war, the West imposed sanctions against the Kremlin, and tightened them almost every month. Russia immediately began to use the Eurasian and Customs Union countries which are under its control to circumvent the sanctions. A special place was allocated to Armenia - this country began to buy semiconductors from the West and export them to Russia.

“With the help of this scheme, the trade turnover between the two countries ramped up. In 2021, the trade turnover totaled $2.6bn, and Armenia's exports to Russia amounted to $710m.

In 2022, the trade turnover between the two countries doubled and reached to $5bn. and Armenia's exports to Russia amounted to $3bn, i.e., exports increased 4.3 times in 1 year and reached $3bn. Of course, this is not organic and natural growth.

In the first 7 months of 2023, the trade turnover of these countries is $3.7bn, and the Armenian export to Russia totaled $2.1bn. By the end of the year, the turnover is expected to reach $5.9bn and Yerevan's export to Moscow will be $4bn. That is, it will increase by 5.7 times. It is clear that the Kremlin makes good use of Armenia, and mostly acquires "dual purpose" products through Armenia. In the last 2 years, Russia received semiconductors which costed $3bn through the Milur Electronics company and its branches which is registered in Armenia,” the Economist noted.

He said that the sharp increase in trade turnover of Armenia's exports to Russia relates to this factor. As is known, Semiconductors mean rockets, and drones and it is, a very important issue for the Kremlin.

“The West had already imposed some sanctions against Armenia, but preparations were underway for greater sanctions. As a "coincidence", Russian-Armenian relations "spoiled" at this time - Zakharova and others quickly began to stigmatize Pashinyan, saying that he was pro-Western, and began to "inflate his price" in the West; Armenia for the first time sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine; Pashinyan's wife went to Kyiv and gave a speech, and met with Zelensky. All this serves to create an image of Pashinyan "fighting with Russia," to prevent further sanctions,” he said,

He added that in this mutual combat, Russia wins because it gets semiconductors to produce sophisticated weapons; Armenia wins because its economy and population are gaining money from "exports" to Russia; and the West sells its semiconductors.

“The only loser is Ukraine. Now is the time for Kyiv, to use its influence on the world political elite and explain that the semiconductors supplied by Armenia to Russia means drones and missiles that rained down on Ukraine. Ukraine should demand sanctions on Armenia,” he emphasized.

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