Azernews.Az

By Vusala Mustafayeva

The Russia-Ukraine war has had a continuing impact on the geopolitical situation in the region for over a year. During this time, the political and economic landscape on an international scale has been changing. However, ongoing political tension still exists in neighboring Balkan countries, the Caucasus, and particularly in the South Caucasus.

According to Ukrainian expert Vitaly Yarmolenko, Russia has lost the strategic initiative while it is involved in a war with Ukraine. "It is becoming increasingly evident that its goals in the war against Ukraine are virtually impossible to achieve in the medium term. Therefore, more often, signals are being sent through various channels - either through individuals connected in some way with the Russian leadership or through third countries friendly to the Russian Federation - about the need for speedy negotiations and the actual freezing of the conflict. Ukraine aims to turn the tide of hostilities as soon as possible and conduct a successful counter-offensive."

Yarmolenko notes that active military operations are limited to the urban and suburban areas of settlements in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The expert anticipates that the situation will become more dynamic in the near future. He believes that Russia's interests in the Caucasus region should be evaluated specifically in this situation.

"Russia's strategic interest in the entire CIS space, and particularly in the South Caucasus, remains significant. This was demonstrated in yesterday's telephone conversation between Pashinyan and Putin, as well as the subsequent change of command of the Russian contingent in Karabakh. The Russian Federation aims to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus, which is why it intends to continue demonstrating its involvement in the settlement of the conflict. However, the significant military losses during the invasion of Ukraine, coupled with the economic and reputational losses associated with this adventure, have made it impossible for the Russian Federation to play a constructive and prominent role in the region."

Currently, the political situation in the region is changing every day. Yarmolenko notes that the reassignment of the commander of the Russian peacekeepers temporarily stationed in Karabakh was not a coincidence.

"The possibility of losing control over the Lachin corridor could pose significant reputational risks for Russia, which seeks to maintain its role as an intermediary” he added.
In general, we can conclude that Russia's interests in the region are constantly changing. This is also related to Armenia's foreign policy towards Russia. Also, as we know, after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Armenian lobby within the Russian government became more active, and the counter-activities of anti-Russian forces within Armenia had a serious impact on the situation. Armenia's compliance towards the West has caused a change in its relations with Russia. This, of course, has changed the political situation in the region.
According to experts, the Ukraine-Russia war can end with Russia's agreement with the West. There are also those who claim the opposite. Only time will tell what will happen. In any case, the events have led to an increase in the prestige of Azerbaijan in the region and on the international stage, as the state of Azerbaijan always stands for what is right, supports peace, and has the most successful policy on the international scale.

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