Azernews.Az

Akbar Novruz

Read more

As the war in Ukraine drags into yet another season of stalemate, a new twist has emerged from Washington that could reshape the diplomatic narrative. U.S. President Donald Trump, already known for his unpredictable moves on foreign policy, has unexpectedly revised the ultimatum he previously issued to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Originally granting a 50-day period to reach a resolution, Trump has now slashed that deadline to just 10–12 days, beginning July 28. The announcement caught many observers off guard, especially as it coincides with reports of new Russian military gains in eastern Ukraine. While Russian analysts continue to downplay Trump’s threats—such as potential 100% tariffs on trade partners or escalated arms supplies to Europe—the geopolitical stakes are clearly rising.

The broader diplomatic scene remains largely frozen, with few signs of momentum toward genuine peace. Yet as history often shows, moments of prolonged deadlock can sometimes precede dramatic shifts. Could Trump’s shortened deadline be one such inflection point?

Azernews consulted two prominent foreign experts to better understand the implications of this move:

Vadym Tryukhan, Ukrainian military analyst:

"How Trump's new ultimatum will end and what we will see starting on August 10 is hard to predict, especially because Trump remains a highly unpredictable politician and leader. But the fact that this ultimatum has appeared at all reflects tectonic shifts in Trump's position toward Russia—once seen by him as a potential partner for trade and cooperation.

It seems Trump has grown disillusioned with that idea. He may also be drawing lessons from his earlier hardline stance against Iran, when his support for Israel and attacks on Iranian nuclear sites led Tehran to roll back some of its ambitions.

Now, shortening the ultimatum will definitely affect both military and diplomatic calculations. For one, it’s unrealistic to expect a meeting between Putin and Zelensky within this compressed timeline. And even progress at the expert level—say, through Russia’s envoy Medinsky—is unlikely, since Russia still refuses to abandon its aggressive aims of undermining Ukrainian sovereignty.

Brussels will likely follow Washington’s lead, while here in Kyiv, we focus on ramping up domestic weapons production and expanding joint ventures with our allies. Yes, the front is difficult, but Russian resources are not infinite.

By September or October, we could reach a kind of zugzwang or stalemate, where Russia loses the initiative. Or perhaps even a turning point, especially if our missile and drone capabilities—financed in part by our partners—succeed in inflicting major damage on Russian forces.

So no, Trump’s ultimatum is not just symbolic. It could be the beginning of a strategic shift on the battlefield.”

Andrew Korybko, Moscow-based analyst:

“Trump already announced earlier this month that he’ll send Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine and that NATO allies agreed to purchase new US arms at full price that they’ll then send to Ukraine. He therefore already escalated the US’ involvement in the conflict, which was the result of being manipulated into mission creep by anti-Russian hawks like Lindsey Graham, even before this new twist. What he just announced will likely only concern his threatened imposition of up to 100% tariffs on Russia’s trading partners, though some like the EU and Turkiye will likely be exempt.

The question on everyone’s mind is whether he’ll tariff China and India, Russia’s top trading partners that do more trade with the US than with Russia, if they don’t at least curtail trade with Russia. It also remains to be seen exactly which tariffs he’d impose in that scenario, whether it’ll collapse their ongoing trade talks, and what the blowback might be for American consumers. Trump will have to impose at least some tariffs at least on China and/or India, Russia’s top trade partners, regardless of the potential blowback for American interests in order to save face.

Putin is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire before the expiry of Trump’s shortened deadline, while China and India are unlikely to cut off all discounted Russian energy imports by that time too. If no tariffs are imposed in spite of Russia and China and/or India defying him, the first by not agreeing to a ceasefire and the second by still trading with Russia, then few will believe his future tariff threats. Russia isn’t expected to voluntarily decelerate, let alone outright stop, its gradual on-the-ground gains by the expiry of Trump’s shortened deadline since it hasn’t yet achieved Putin’s stated goals.

These are obtaining control over the entirety of the disputed regions, demilitarizing Ukraine, denazifying it, and restoring its constitutional neutrality, all of which Putin repeatedly reaffirmed. If he complies with Trump’s demands under duress without receiving anything from the US and/or Ukraine in exchange, then he risks looking weak at home and abroad, which would harm Putin’s image.”