No reason for another devaluation of tenge
By Aynur Jafarova
Russian economy has slowed down recently due to the U.S. and EU sanctions over Ukraine crisis. Now it is expected that the country's economy would reduce in size by the end of this year.
These severe sanctions may indirectly impact the economy of regional countries, including Russia's largest neighbor in Central Asia, Kazakhstan. And the actual effect will be gradual, though imminent in Kazakhstan, the inflation level of which is estimated at 6-8 percent and its gold and currency reserves at $28 billion in 2014.
One of the sanctions' effects may be the devaluation of Kazakhstan's national currency tenge. There were some speculations among Astana's exchangers about purchasing dollar.
Long lines appeared in front of exchangers on the evening of July 30. In the morning, the rate of dollar (sale) amounted to 184.8 tenge. In the evening, the dollar began to be sold at 187 tenge in two exchange offices on Republic Avenue.
Meanwhile, dollar's rate was 183.05 tenge at the KASE exchange on July 31 and totaled 183.5 tenge on trading results in the evening.
However, well-known Kazakh financier Aidan Karibjanov believes there is no objective reason for another devaluation of Kazakhstan's national currency.
"There are no objective economic reasons for devaluation now. The main external factor is the state of the Russian economy and the sanctions against it. This affects us, but indirectly and with a time lag. It is necessary to be prepared for it. But at the moment the impact is rather emotional," he wrote on his personal Facebook page.
Karibjanov also noted there are no fundamental prerequisites for the devaluation.
"Rather, they may exist, but not now. The prices for main export commodities, including oil and metals, have not changed in recent months. The receipt of hard currency remained unchanged. The previous devaluation was oversized. However, predictions are thankless," he said.
In February 2014, the Kazakh National Bank decided to devalue its tenge currency by 19 percent to about 185 per dollar. In February 2009, the National Bank of the country weakened tenge by 25 percent against dollar as well.
Chairman of Kazakh National Bank Kairat Kelimbetov believes there are no reasons for another devaluation of Kazakhstan's national currency tenge as the oil prices are high, and the country has a margin of safety.