EBRD revises up Azerbaijan growth forecast to 4 pct
By Nigar Orujova
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said Friday it has revised up its forecast on Gross Domestic Product growth in Azerbaijan in 2013.
According to the Regional Economic Prospects in EBRD Countries of Operations report, a 4 percent increase in GDP growth is expected in the fast-growing South Caucasus republic this year. In October 2012, the EBRD was predicting 3 percent growth in Azerbaijan's GDP in 2013.
The EBRD report says that after successfully overcoming the aftereffect of global financial crisis, the Azerbaijani economy slowed down as oil production declined. The reduction in output was partially offset by significant growth of the non-oil sector, which was mostly fueled by budgetary expenditure. Insufficient economic diversification remains an important fact, as risks related to high dependence on oil manifested themselves during the crisis as oil prices were falling. Relative production recovery in the oil sector and the growing non-oil sector should lead to acceleration of GDP growth in 2013. The country's strong fiscal position continues to mitigate unexpected macroeconomic risks, according to the report.
According to official projections, Azerbaijan's GDP growth rate in 2013 is expected to make up 5.3 percent, while the total GDP volume is to reach $71 billion, with 55 percent of the growth expected to come from the non-oil economy.
Previously, the World Bank predicted GDP growth in Azerbaijan to reach 4.2 percent in 2013. The WB also expects it to increase by 3.7 percent in 2014 and 3.6 percent in 2015.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Azerbaijan's economic growth will be at 3.8 percent in 2013. The figure is slightly over the projection made by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which expects 3.5 percent GDP growth.
Azerbaijan's GDP growth in 2012 made up 2.2 percent and according to Economic Development Minister Shahin Mustafayev, the growth last year like in the previous year was entirely provided by the non-oil sector. The growth of the non-oil sector in 2012 was 9.7 percent, and its share in GDP rose to 52.7 percent.
GDP per capita made up about 5,884 manats ($7,490) in 2012.