JP Morgan cuts crude price forecast by $13/barrel

Analysts of the US JP Morgan bank have lowered Brent price forecast by $13 to $35 a barrel for the first quarter of 2016.

They similarly revised down 1Q2016 WTI price to $33.50 a barrel.

“Oil markets are trapped in a vicious crosscurrent of warmer weather, slower non-OPEC supply adjustments and OPEC’s clearest signal yet that there is no deviation in sight from defending market share by key producers,” analysts said in a report, obtained by Trend.

1Q2016 balances were already expected to be oversupplied, analysts noted.

“Our recent reassessment for weaker demand in December and January and higher US supply lead us to lower our 1Q2016 Brent forecast to $35 a barrel.

Similarly, we revise down our 1Q2016 WTI price to $33.50 a barrel, and now expect a tighter spread between the two crudes as the removal of the US crude export ban marginally supports US crude markets,” they said.

Global oil prices plunged from about $108 in the first half of 2014 to below $40 currently due to glut in markets.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, January futures for WTI decreased by $0.57 to $34.95 a barrel on December 17, which is the lowest settlement since February 2009. January Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange decreased by 0.33 percent to $37.06 a barrel.

Brent is down 2.3 percent for the week and 35 percent for the year. WTI is down 1.9 percent for the week and 34 percent since the start of the year.

JP Morgan forecasts for oil prices, 2015, 2016 (in $/bl)

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