Azerbaijan is likely to increase oil output in 2019, Trend reports citing S&P Global Platts.
It expects rising condensate production at the Shah Deniz field offsetting declines at legacy crude fields in Azerbaijan.
"We forecast Azerbaijani crude and condensate output to grow modestly in 2019, by less than 10,000 barrels per day (b/d). The Shah Deniz condensate project will grow by 30,000 b/d due to its Phase 2 ramp up, to an average of 90,000 b/d," said Platts.
Azerbaijan's flagship project Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli, which accounts for the bulk of production, is set to see further natural decline next year, according to the analysis.
Platts analysts pointed out that despite project operator BP introducing measures to shore up output, it has been broadly on the decline since it peaked at 800,000 b/d in 2009.
"We expect Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) to produce 510,000 b/d next year, down from 530,000 b/d in 2018," Platts said.
Azerbaijan presented data on its daily oil production in November 2018 to the OPEC Joint Technical Committee as part of the Vienna Agreement.
Daily oil production stood at 801,000 barrels in November 2018, of which 733,000 barrels accounted for crude oil and 68,000 barrels for condensate, while 6,000 barrels of oil products were exported.
In January 2018, daily oil production stood at 814,600 barrels, in February 2018 – at 806,000 barrels, in March – 794,000 barrels, in April – 785,700 barrels, in May – 801,000 barrels, in June – 792,000 barrels, in July – 773,000 barrels, in August – 774,000 barrels, In September – 796,000 barrels and in October – 783,000 barrels of oil per day.
In December 2016, at a meeting of oil producers in Vienna, 11 non-OPEC countries, including Azerbaijan, agreed to cut oil production by a total of 558,000 barrels a day. The agreement was concluded for the first half of 2017 and was extended until the end of the first quarter of 2018 at a meeting on May 25, 2017.
At the last OPEC meeting in Vienna, the agreement was again extended until the end of 2018. Azerbaijan supported the decision.
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