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Akbar Novruz

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has escalated pressure on Belarus by demanding that Minsk dismantle infrastructure which Kyiv says is being used to support Russian drone operations along the border.

During a June 19 press briefing, Zelenskyy called on the Belarusian authorities to remove specific signal retransmission equipment allegedly facilitating Russian drone activity, warning that if Minsk failed to act within a week, Ukraine would do so itself. He also urged Belarus to halt petroleum exports from its refineries to Russia and called for an end to supplies of military-related components from Belarusian industry.

Zelenskyy further suggested that Belarus' leadership privately opposes the war and should begin acting accordingly. His remarks came shortly before June 22, a date carrying deep historical significance in Belarus as the anniversary of Nazi Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union during World War II.

Meanwhile, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have argued that the Kremlin could eventually use the Union State framework to draw Belarus further into the conflict, including by recruiting Belarusian citizens into Russian military formations to address Russia's continuing manpower shortages.

Russian and Ukrainian analysts shared their assessments of these issues with AzerNEWS:

Commenting on Zelenskyy's remarks, Moscow-based geopolitical analyst Andrew Korybko argued that while Belarus continues to maintain its alliance with Russia, President Alexander Lukashenko has consistently resisted deeper military involvement in the conflict.

“Lukashenko remains allied with Putin, and some Russian troops entered Ukraine from Belarus during the initial stage of the special operation, but he doesn’t want to embroil his country any further in the conflict. It’s therefore plausible that he conveyed this to Zelensky somehow, which aligns with his public statements repeatedly calling for an end to hostilities, but it doesn’t mean that he’s about to break with Putin and kick out Russian troops.”

According to Korybko, Zelenskyy's comments should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of an imminent split between Minsk and Moscow, arguing that Lukashenko has historically sought to preserve Belarus' room for maneuver while remaining strategically aligned with Russia.

“Lukashenko has a known history of refusing to subordinate Belarus as Russia’s ‘junior partner’ as he sees it. From Putin’s perspective, generous Russian subsidies are responsible for Belarus’ economic and thus political stability, so Lukashenko previously behaved ungratefully when feuding with him over various issues in the past.

Nevertheless, Putin hasn’t pressured Lukashenko to commit Belarusian troops to the Ukrainian Conflict, mostly likely because he knows that his counterpart is firmly opposed to this and it’s wildly unpopular in Belarusian society too. He therefore isn’t expected to call for this and all such claims that he has are fake news.”

Offering a different assessment, former Ukrainian diplomat and war analyst Vadym Tryukhan argued that Zelenskyy's ultimatum carries genuine military credibility and that Minsk has already begun responding to Kyiv's demands:

“Unlike Putin, who abuses empty ultimatums, Zelenskyy stands by every word he says. And Lukashenko knows this perfectly well.

That's why news emerged yesterday that both repeater stations located near the Belarusian-Ukrainian border are no longer operational. Lukashenko carefully weighed the pros and cons and realized that Russia has no means of defending Belarus, while Lukashenko himself has absolutely no troops capable of confronting a Ukrainian army, seasoned in battles against Russia.”

Tryukhan further suggested that Belarus could soon suspend petroleum exports supporting Russia in order to avoid becoming a direct military target.

“I think we will soon see both of Lukashenko's oil refineries stop supplying petroleum products to Ukraine. Otherwise, they could be destroyed in a single blow.

I think we will soon see both of Lukashenko's oil refineries stop supplying petroleum products to Ukraine. Otherwise, they could be destroyed in a single blow.”

Looking beyond Belarus, Tryukhan argued that Kyiv's tougher posture could eventually extend directly toward Russia itself.

“What's next? And then, having practiced on Lukashenko, Zelenskyy will turn his attention to Putin. I think we'll soon witness the first harsh ultimatums to Russia. And the first, I think, will concern withdrawal from Crimea.

The key is that the days are gone when Putin could issue ultimatums and anyone would fear them. In Ukraine, they haven't been afraid of them for a long time. Ukraine has learned to punch Putin's troops and Putin himself in the face, and publicly.

Therefore, he will soon be held accountable for his short-sighted, bloodthirsty policies toward Ukraine and many other countries around the world.”

*image credit: UA News