ADB forecasts GDP growth in Azerbaijan

29 April 2021 16:28 (UTC+04:00)

By Ayya Lmahamad

Asian Development Bank has forecasted 1.9 percent GDP growth in Azerbaijan’s economy for 2021.

In its April report, Asian Development Outlook 2021 has predicted that Azerbaijan's economic growth will accelerate to 2.5 percent in 2022.

The report says that “As consumer confidence is restored and petroleum receipts become available for public investment, growth in the petroleum industry is expected to be outpaced by expansion in the rest of the economy.”

According to the report, the industry is forecasted to expand by 2.1 percent in 2021 and 2.9 percent in 2022, led by higher gas production and recovery in construction.

“Agriculture is expected to grow by 3.5 percent in both years on state support and easy farmer access to finance, including a new subsidy to cut production costs,” the bank stated.

Furthermore, inflation is forecasted to accelerate to 3.5 percent in 2021, reflecting price increases of 10 percent for gasoline and 33 percent for diesel, and a doubling of household water charges.

Likewise, budget revenue is forecasted to grow to 34.5 percent of GDP in 2021, while expenditure is forecasted to reach 38.7 percent.

Additionally, Azerbaijan’s balance of payment surplus is projected to equal to 3.9 percent of GDP in 2021 and to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2022, as oil prices and petroleum output revive.

“All exports—notably petroleum, fruit, vegetables, and cotton— are projected to grow by 29.2 percent in 2021 and 0.7 percent in 2022. Imports are projected to increase by 9.2 percent in 2021 and 2.7 percent in 2022 as recovery raises incomes and consumer spending. The service deficit should narrow as transportation and tourism gradually recover, but the income account deficit will likely widen as higher oil income spurs profit repatriation abroad,” the report reads.

Azerbaijan has been a member of the Asian Development Bank since 1999. Since then, the bank has committed $4.4 billion in loans, $32.28 million in technical assistance projects, including ADB-administered co-financing for Azerbaijan.

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Ayya Lmahamad is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @AyyaLmahamad

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