By Abdul Kerimkhanov
The impossibility of advancing in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict shows the incapacity of the Armenian authorities, which ultimately can lead to a complete catastrophe of the Armenian state.
"The regime in Yerevan is enriched in plundering its own country, using the occupied territories of Azerbaijan as uncontrolled zones for drug trafficking and other purposes," Arye Gut, an expert in international relations, said in an interview with Azernews. "All this leads Armenia and the Armenian people to a national catastrophe."
He recalled that there is no precedent in world history for any state to voluntarily cede land seized by force to another state.
"Recent statements by Armenian Prime Minister, as well as his Defense Minister, are pushing Azerbaijan towards a forceful solution to the problem. Pashinyan and his team almost forgot about Armenian people and are busy strengthening their own power. I do not see any difference between Pashinyan and Sargsyan," he noted.
The expert noted that Armenia, which is isolated in the South Caucasus region due to the occupation of Azerbaijani lands, remained practically aloof from the main geopolitical and geo-economic projects related to the gas and oil resources of the Caspian Sea.
"In the future, Armenia will not be able to be a part of any geopolitical project in the South Caucasus, where Azerbaijan and Georgia, mutually benefit from close cooperation in many areas," he noted.
Gut mentioned that after the fall of the corrupt and criminal regime of Serzh Sargsyan, it seemed that a breakthrough would occur in the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations and the new Armenian government would begin to negotiate peace. However, it was just an illusion, he added.
The expert believes that Pashinyan hopes for his alleged "democratic image" to use it to put pressure on the West, in order to involve the puppet regime to participate in the negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement.
"Such frivolous and narrow-minded calculations point to unprofessionalism, lack of strategic thinking and the complete unsuitability of the new Armenian PM for politics," he thinks.
Gut emphasized the current situation leads to the fact that the war is the only way for Azerbaijan to achieve justice.
"Baku has repeatedly stated and warned Armenia that it will never agree with the existing status quo. However, delusional statements by the Armenian military and political leadership and representatives of the puppet regime in Nagorno-Karabakh indicate their concern, fear and panic," the expert noted.
Being recently on the line of contact with journalists from leading Israeli media, he stressed that today, Azerbaijan is the country with the strongest and most powerful army in the South Caucasus region. He added that Pashinyan is well aware that a direct military clash with Azerbaijan will lead to the final collapse and fiasco of Armenia.
"It is impossible to compare the military potential of Azerbaijan with Armenia since they are absolutely incomparable. I think Pashinyan will balance on the edge, trying not to bring the situation to the extreme, after which irreversible consequences may follow for him and Armenia," he said.
Speaking about the possibility of Armenia's attack on Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan, he noted that Yerevan is well aware that any provocation in the Nakhchivan direction will be the beginning of the end for Armenian statehood.
He emphasized that Baku adheres to the correct and constructive position on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, which is in the interests of both the country and the South Caucasus region.
The expert recalled that this position implies the de-occupation of the internationally recognized territories of Azerbaijan within the framework of international law, the Helsinki Final Act and four UN Security Council resolutions demanding the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian Armed Forces from the occupied territories.
Gut noted that if Yerevan does not accept this approach, Baku has the full right, according to the UN Charter, to use its military force for the release of territories.
"It is impossible to speak the language of ultimatums with Baku. Azerbaijan has a fairly high geopolitical weight, a strong and powerful army and a stable economy, which indicates the country’s development as a leader of geopolitical and geo-economic processes in the South Caucasus," he concluded.
Abdul Kerimkhanov is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @AbdulKerim94
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