Experts predicts good news on Karabakh for upcoming year

15 November 2016 12:21 (UTC+04:00)

By Gunay Hasanova

Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential elections serves as a matter of concern for Armenia in terms of resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Armenia, mostly counting on Trump's rival in the presidential race Hillary Clinton, is feeling left alone in the field of battle.

Following the April events, Moscow's initiative to find the soonest resolution to the Karabakh conflict based on the rule of international law seriously concerned Yerevan.

The revitalization of the American mediation motivated by the Armenian lobby was going to be a counterbalance to that. Although, the Diaspora did make definite job, the unexpected results for Armenia of the U.S. presidential elections ruined Yerevan’s plans.

Currently, Armenia is wondering what position Donald Trump will hold towards the South Caucasus and whether it will be possible to neutralize the inconvenient for Armenia Moscow’s initiative.

In the opposite Baku expects true assistance of Trump-led U.S. to a fair settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In a congratulatory letter to the new-elect president of the United States, the Azerbaijani leader expressed hope that the U.S. will contribute to the soonest resolution of the long-lasting conflict.  

Armenia, which keeps under occupation 20 percent of Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territory, is also concerned that the current U.S. president is insufficiently informed about Karabakh issue and he won’t put that much weight on Armenian factor in American politics. This, in turn, will create conditions for further strengthening of Russia’s initiative, known to be associated with the gradual resolution of the conflict and return of the territories.

Russian political scientist Oleg Kuznetsov said the Armenian lobby in the U.S. presidential election bet for a wrong candidate choosing as the object of financial support Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Hence, Armenia lost the struggle for influence on the new host of White House.

“However, with Donald Trump case Armenians do not have a chance since he financed his election campaign of his own funds, without resorting to the resources of third-party investors. Therefore, he is free from the influence of Armenian Diaspora,” Kuznetsov said, adding that Trump will approach the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict based on his own vision of the situation.

Kuznetsov also pointed out that he disagrees with the point that Trump is not informed about the situation in South Caucasus, adding that this is a misconception.

“Trump is an experienced financier and investor in real estate, so he is able to assess not only the economic but also the political component of each of his project,” he added.  

Trump knows about Azerbaijan and knows it very well. Previously, Trump made investments in Azerbaijan and undoubtedly understands the investment attractiveness of the country.

Azerbaijan plays an important role for the West in terms of cooperation in the field of energy security. Moreover, the country carries out independent policy, focused on its own national interests.

In addition, the political scientist said that Trump intends to rebuild relationships not just with Russia, but personally with Vladimir Putin, whose identity was clearly demonized by Western politicians for last three years.

Donald Trump may support several individual initiatives of the Russian President, which includes step by step solution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, according to Kuznetsov.

The Armenian terrorism is a part of international terrorism and the struggle with it will sharply increase in the process of transition from one president to another. Whatever these decisions will be, their development is free from the influence of the Armenian lobby in the U.S. To a certain extent this will strengthen the position of Baku supporters in the political leadership of Russia.

“Consequently, I think Azerbaijan should expect positive news at the beginning of next year," Oleg Kuznetsov concluded.

Nagorno-Karabakh that affected the destiny of millions again aggravated on April 2 after the Armenian military units in the occupied lands started shelling Azerbaijan’s positions.

To protect the civilian population, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces launched counter attacks and as a result, the Azerbaijani troops retook hills around the village of Talysh, as well as Seysulan settlement, and also took over Leletepe hill located in the direction of Fizuli region.

While the OSCE Minsk Group acted as a sole mediator in the resolution of the conflict, the occupation of the territory of the sovereign State with its internationally recognized boundaries has been left out of the due attention of the international community for years.

Armenia ignores four UN Security Council resolutions on immediate withdrawal from the occupied territory of Azerbaijan, thus keeping the tension high in the region.


Gunay Hasanova is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @gunhasanova

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