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WB expects GDP growth in Kazakhstan

4 December 2015 17:59 (UTC+04:00)
WB expects GDP growth in Kazakhstan

By Laman Sadigova

The World Bank has forecasted GDP growth in Kazakhstan to reach 1 percent in 2015-2016 and 3.3 percent in 2017.

The Bank forecasts the oil prices to remain low in the next year and to grow gradually in 2017. In 2015, the ongoing slump in global oil prices and weak domestic and external demand adversely impacted Kazakhstan’s GDP growth.

The lower-case scenario assumes that the oil prices in 2016 will fall further than in the baseline, while worsening Kazakhstan’s domestic demand and GDP growth. Under both scenarios, domestic oil production is expected to increase in 2017 due to oil production in the Kashagan, that will boost GDP growth and improve the fiscal and current account balances.

The Bank further noted that the difficult external environment will continue to influence the medium-term development of Kazakhstan. In the long term, experts say that "it is necessary to diversify the economy to enhance the stability of the country to external shocks."

Also, the World Bank experts noted that in the long-term future the successful implementation of the Kazakh government’s ambitious program on structural reforms, including full implementation of the World Trade Organization agreements, in conjunction with the institutional reforms and capacity building, human capital formation and continuation of investments in infrastructure should enhance the productivity and competitiveness of the non-oil economy.

Over time, this program is expected to create a basis for a more sustainable and diversified development model of Kazakh economy.

Earlier, Kazakh leader Nursultan Nazarbayev said that Kazakhstan has developed an anti-crisis plan in case of decline of world oil prices to $20-$30 per barrel.

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Follow Laman Sadigova on Twitter: @s_laman93

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