Iran able to produce 120 kb/d more oil after sanctions in 2015
By Dalga Khatinoglu
Wood Mackenzie estimates Iran would able to add 120 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) to its oil production in 2015 after lifting sanctions.
While the self-imposed nuclear deadline looms, Wood Mackenzie and Verisk Maplecroft released a jointly written report saying that returning Iran to oil markets wouldn't be easy.
The report, which was obtained by Trend, says that western oil and gas companies returning to or entering Iran in the wake of a nuclear deal will face a broad range of political and regulatory challenges.
"These range from an inefficient petroleum bureaucracy to heightened regional tensions".
The nuclear talks that have been ongoing for more than twelve years between Iran and the P5+1 (USA, Russia, China, France, UK and Germany) are in their final stage. As the deadline of 30th June looms for the parties to finalize an accord, Wood Mackenzie and Verisk Maplecroft are in agreement that a deal leading to the unwinding of sanctions is likely.
Wood Mackenzie bases its global oil market and Iran upstream analysis and forecasts on the assumption that a nuclear deal is reached in mid 2015 kicking off a gradual process with sanctions fully lifted by mid-2016.
The report says that Iran could add crude oil production to global supply of 600,000 barrels a day (b/d) by the end of 2017, incrementally on an annual average basis of:
- 120kb/d by end 2015
- Another 260 kb/d end 2016
- Another 220 kb/d end 2017.
This gradual rate of growth is not expected to have a significant downward effect on oil prices.
"We expect total crude production capacity to rise from 2,700 kb/d in 2015 to 3,400 kb/d in 2020 – and could reach as much as 4.4 million b/d by 2025 with foreign direct investment in the upstream sector," the report says.
Gas
The report also says that Iran's gas production will increase sharply and sales gas plus re-injection will increase from 19.3 billion cubic feet a day (bcfd) in 2014 to 24 bcfd in 2017, representing a 24% increase.
According to the report, five new South Pars phases coming on stream in 2014-2015, eventually will increase production capacity by more than 6 bcfd.
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