IMF expects sharp fall in remittance flow to Tajikistan
By Sara Rajabova
The International Monetary Fund has forecasted in 2015 a sharp fall in remittance flows to Tajikistan, which is heavily dependent on remittances.
The IMF said dollar remittance flows to Tajikistan will decline by approximately 30 percent this year compared to 2014.
“Thus, we can expect economic slowdown in the country and pressure on the exchange rate of the national currency, the somoni, this year,” Aidyn Bibolov, IMF Resident Representative in Tajikistan, told Asia-Plus.
He said remittances remain a critical component of Tajikistan’s economy and they keep many families in the country above the poverty line.
Some 42 percent of the country’s economy relies on the money sent by Tajik migrants working mostly in Russia. However, the new restrictions on immigration and dramatic fall of ruble worsened the conditions for Tajik migrants.
“Decline in the attractiveness of working in the Russian Federation may lead to increase in the number of labor migrants who will remain in the country and the situation of remittance-dependent families will deteriorate,” Bibolov said.
In 2014, the Federal Migration Service of Russia deported more than 200,000 Tajik citizens who worked without proper permission or committed administrative violations, according to Russian officials. That number is expected to grow with tighter regulations adopted in January.
Bibolov urged the government to take measures to improve employment opportunities in order to provide assistance to such families.
“As far as we know the government thinks about this together with partners for development,” he said.
He advised Tajik nationals “to keep their savings in the currencies and forms that meet current and future requirements.”
Tajikistan’s National Bank data showed that a total volume of remittances sent to Tajikistan last year amounted to 3.9 billion U.S. dollars, which was 8.3 percent fewer than in 2013.
In 2014, 89.1 percent of remittances from Russia to Tajikistan were reportedly sent in Russian rubles, 10.8 percent in U.S. dollars, and only 0.1 percent in euros.
Specialists from Tajik central bank attribute the decline in remittance flows to unprecedented fall in the international oil prices and sanctions imposed by the Western countries on Russia, which is the main destination country for Tajik migrant workers and one of major trading partners of Tajikistan.
Some experts blame the Tajik government for not taking the necessary measures to address the problem. They say aware of the importance of remittances for the economy, the Tajik government encourages the migration of its citizens, as the cash influx they generate is seen as a social stabilizer.
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Sara Rajabova is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on
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