TAPI gas pipeline project has real prospects to be implemented
By Elena Kosolapova
Despite a lot of difficulties and threats, the
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project
has real prospects to be build, Lecturer in Central Asian Studies
at the University of Glasgow (UK) Luca Anceschi believes.
“Although difficult, TAPI in my view is most likely to happen,”
Anceschi told Trend.
Turkmenistan does not want to depend on just Chinese gas market and
has to find new avenues to export its gas, according to the
expert.
“Turkmenistan’s gas has to go somewhere… TAPI is still the most
likely to be finalized because of this very condition,” Anceschi
said.
The expert noted that India and Pakistan are buyers who are very
interested in acquiring Turkmen gas, and the economic argument
seems to be the one, which makes sense for TAPI.
“This is the condition to put all the money together and build the
pipeline,” he said.
At the same time, there are a lot of local threats that the project
might face, and Anceschi believes any forecasts on the TAPI project
security are mere speculations.
The project will face local threats, especially in the Afghan
sector of the pipeline, though the pipeline will run through quite
secure territories which are under total control of Afghan
government, he said.
The expert further explained that the pipeline's security will be
ensured at the very local, village level. What it means is that
providing security will be complicated with corruption and bribes
by local tribal heads and warlords, and that will greatly increase
the price for security of the pipeline.
“But at the very end if there is critical will and economic power,
it could be done,” Anceschi said.
Meanwhile the expert noted that Turkmenistan has enough gas to
satisfy any other alternative gas pipelines, including
Trans-Caspian pipeline, together with TAPI pipeline,
simultaneously. He noted that independent experts confirmed that
Turkmen Galkynysh field has huge gas resources.
“At the current time they have enough gas to do what they want,” he
said.
However, Anceschi thinks it will be difficult to realize the
Trans-Caspian pipeline. He noted that this project contradicts
Russian plans of the transit of Eurasian gas to Europe.
Russian company Gazprom is very aggressive here and does not really
want to have gas of the former Soviet Union as a competitor in the
European market, he said.
“I would suspect that Turkmen government will receive pressure from
Russia not to go that route,” he said.
Anceschi further said that the EU has never promised any
substantive money to Turkmenistan, which China did put on the table
and India promises to provide.
In addition, India is more likely to participate in building a big
pipeline in a shorter time frame, Anceschi said.
Turkmengaz State Concern, Afghan Gas Corporation, Pakistan’s "Inter
State Gas Systems (Private) Limited" and Indian "GAIL (India)
Limited" with equal shares have recently established "TAPI Ltd."
operating company. It will own the pipeline in the future. The
project implementation can begin in 2015.
The basic document for its implementation is Ashgabat’s interstate
agreement signed among the participating countries in 2010.
The design capacity of the TAPI will be up to 33 billion cubic
meters of gas per year, while the expected lifetime is 30
years.
The total length of TAPI will reach 1,735 kilometers. Some 200
kilometers of the pipeline will run through Turkmenistan, 735
kilometers - through Afghanistan, 800 kilometers - through Pakistan
to the settlement of Fazilka, located on the border with India.
The Trans-Caspian pipeline project envisages the laying of around
300 kilometers long gas pipeline under the Caspian to the shores of
Azerbaijan. Further fuel can be transported to Turkey which has
mutual borders with European countries.
The project is regarded as the optimal option for delivering
Turkmen resources to European markets. In June 2013, a framework
agreement on cooperation in deliveries of Turkmen natural gas to
Turkey and further to Europe was signed between the governments of
Turkmenistan and Turkey.
The negotiations between the EU, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan on the
Trans-Caspian gas pipeline began in September 2011. However Russia
and Iran have always spoken against the Trans-Caspian pipeline due
to ecological issues during the pipeline's construction. The
unresolved status of the Caspian Sea has been regarded as the main
factor hindering the implementation of the project.
The official position of Ashgabad regarding the project is that the
consent of the countries whose territories are involved into the
project is enough to build a pipeline. Azerbaijan has repeatedly
expressed readiness to provide its territory, transit facilities
and infrastructure for realizing the project.
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