Azernews.Az

By Aynur Jafarova

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts slight economic growth in Central Asia countries in 2013-2014, according to the bank's Asian Development Outlook 2013 report published on Tuesday.

Growth in Kazakhstan to recover slowly

Economic growth in Kazakhstan slowed to 5 percent in 2012 from 7.5 percent in 2011, ADB's report said.

According to the report, growth in Kazakhstan is expected to recover slowly, to 5.2 percent in 2013 and 5.6 percent in 2014.

"Agriculture contracted by 17.8 percent, mostly from poor harvests. Industrial production grew only marginally, by 0.5 percent, compared with 3.7 percent in 2011, reflecting weak growth in mining (0.2 percent versus 1.3 percent in 2011) and manufacturing (0.7 percent versus 6.2 percent in 2011), the latter reflecting a decline in metallurgical production," the report said.

According to the report, in 2012, crude oil output has declined by 1.4 percent, while coal extraction grew by 1.7 percent and natural gas by 3.1 percent.

Inflation slowed to 5.1 percent in 2012 compared with 8.3 percent in 2011, the report said adding that the foreign direct investment grew by 40 percent to $12.7 billion from $9.1 billion in 2011.

According to the report, GDP in Kazakhstan is forecast to grow by 5.2 percent in 2013 and 5.6 percent in 2014.

Economic performance will also depend on demand from Kazakhstan's major trading partners: the European Union, Russia and China. Republican budget revenues could be higher if the Kashagan and Karachaganak projects start operations in 2013, the report said.

Exports in 2013 and 2014 are forecast to increase, reflecting higher oil production. Imports will increase in 2013 as well.

GDP to grow in 2013-2014 in Uzbekistan

The report said that Uzbek economy grew by 8.2 percent in 2012. Growth is forecast to slow only slightly in 2013 and 2014. According to the official data, GDP grew by 8.2 percent in 2012. GDP growth is forecast at 7.5 percent in 2013 and 8.0 percent in 2014.

In 2012, industry growth was driven mainly by machinery, fuel and light industry. Imports of goods and services rose by 9 percent, the report said.

According to the report, the Uzbek government reported that inflation in 2012 was 7 percent while an alternative estimate by the International Monetary Fund is 12.9 percent. Inflation is forecast at 9.5 percent in 2013 and 9 percent in 2014.

"Exports of goods and services declined by 5.1 percent, reflecting weaker external demand and declines in international prices for Uzbekistan's major export commodities: cotton, copper, and natural gas. Exports of cotton, foodstuffs, chemical, metals, and machinery all fell in 2012. However, an 81 percent rise in exports of energy products, primarily natural gas, limited the overall decline in exports," the report said adding that merchandise imports are projected to rise gradually, by 9.1 percent in 2013 and 4.2 percent in 2014.

The government reported foreign investment inflows of $2.5 billion, mainly into oil and gas, petrochemicals and automobile manufacturing.

The highest economic growth is in Turkmenistan

According to the report, the Turkmen economy grew by 11.1 percent which is 14.7 percent less than in 2011. However, growth is forecast to moderate to 9 percent in 2013 and 8 percent in 2014.

"Gas exports, comprising 70 percent of total exports, have continued to rise because of long-term contracts with China, which has steadily increased its purchases since 2009. Other importers, notably Russia and Iran, have continued to purchase gas in more moderate volumes," the report said.

The ADP's report also mentioned that Turkmen government reported all sectors growing in 2012.

Inflation in Turkmenistan was limited to 5.3 percent in 2012 with the help of government subsidies for utilities; low prices for gasoline and public transportation; and price controls on major foodstuffs, the report said adding that exports grew by 19.3 percent, reflecting higher exports of gas, crude oil and oil products.

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), which listed Turkmenistan among the world's top 10 recipients of foreign direct investment, Turkmenistan received foreign direct investment worth $12.6 billion during 2008-2011, including $3.2 billion in 2011.

Export in 2013 to grow in Kyrgyzstan

According to the report, growth in Kyrgyzstan is expected to rebound to 5.5 percent in 2013 and 4.5 percent in 2014. All sectors except gold export and agriculture showed robust gains in 2012.

The report said that GDP in Kyrgyzstan declined during 2012 as adverse geological factors affected the gold production in the country.

According to the report, in 2012, industrial output fell by 13.8 percent as well.

In Kyrgyzstan, investment expanded by 21.5 percent in 2012. Export volume in the country fell by 13.1 percent while import volume grew by 26.2 percent. The trade deficit is estimated to have increased significantly, to $3 billion, the report said.

According to the report, exports are forecast to grow by 20 percent in 2013 and 15 percent in 2014, mainly due to a rebound in gold exports during 2013 and higher exports of textiles and agricultural produce in 2013 and 2014. Imports are expected to grow steadily at 15 percent both in 2013 and 2014 as well.

Inflation slowed significantly to 2.8 percent from 16.6 percent in 2011, the report said adding that inflation is expected to rise to 7.5 percent in 2013 and then ease to 5.5 percent in 2014.

Investment inflows rose by 26.7 percent, largely reflecting new investments in the energy sector. Foreign direct investment inflows will depend largely on the government implementing its proposed structural reform and improvements to the investment climate, the report added.

Economic outlook of Tajikistan is optimistic

The report said that Tajikistan achieved growth of 7.5 percent, which was 7.4 percent in 2011. However slightly slower growth is forecast for 2013 and 2014. According to the report, the economic outlook of Tajikistan is cautiously optimistic. The economic growth is forecast at 6.5 percent in 2013 and 6 percent in 2014.

According to the report, in 2012, services remained the main driver of economic growth, expanding by 14.5 percent. Construction, industry and agriculture grew at more modest rates. Textiles grew by 30 percent and agriculture by 10.4 percent.

Exports rose by 8.2 percent, to an estimated $1.4 billion, foreign direct investment edged up to an estimated $50 million in 2012, the report said.

Inflation slowed to 5.8 percent from 12.5 percent in 2011. The inflation rate is forecast to remain at 6.5 percent in 2013 and reach 7 percent in 2014.

According to the report, the growth in Kyrgyz economy will depend on four factors: projected growth in Russia, stability in regional trade and cargo transit, the amount of precipitation, which is essential for agriculture and hydroelectric generation and political and social stability.

Tajikistan suffers from a poor investment climate and a weak financial sector, however, in 2013, foreign direct investment inflows should continue to rise gradually, in line with ongoing reform. Most investments will likely involve several large infrastructure projects the report said.