Expert doubts Tajikistan could attract foreign investment for Rogun HPP
By Kamila Aliyeva
Attraction of foreign investment for the construction of the
Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP), the world's tallest dam, remains the
key issue that hinders and pulls back the project’s
implementation.
The government of Tajikistan, which has suffered from electricity
shortages for years, makes all possible efforts to complete the
construction of dam that will solve the country’s energy
problem.
By implementing the project, Tajikistan will be able to generate
about 13 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. This will
not only help the country to meet its domestic needs but also turn
Tajikistan into a major exporter of electricity.
Approximately $4 billion is needed to complete the major energy
project. About 2 billion somoni ($227,2 million) have been
allocated from the state budget for the completion of the
hydroelectric power station this year.
Therefore, the Tajik authorities decided to issue securities worth
$1 billion for the completion of the Rogun HPP. At the first stage,
bonds worth $500 million were put up for sale on the world
markets.
Selling bonds internationally worth $500 million is an economic
activity not sufficient enough to construct a giant dam like Rogun,
Dr. Aftab Kazi, Senior Fellow at Central Asia-Caucasus Institute &
Silk Road Studies Program in SAIS, Johns Hopkins University, told
Azernews newspaper.
“Before Rogun could be constructed, all five Central Asian nations
need to sit down together to reach a consensus about the
distribution of water ratios between themselves. Ex-President of
Uzbekistan Islam Karimov was totally against it but Shavkat
Mirziyoyev is more interested in Central Asian regional
integration,” he said.
The dam should form a large Rogun reservoir with a total volume of
13.3 cubic meters. The project is criticized because of the
location in the zone of high seismicity, landslide and mudflow
processes, and the presence of a tectonic fault filled with rock
salt under the base of the dam.
Uzbekistan has previously openly opposed the project. The Rogun HPP
will dam the Vakhsh river, which is a major tributary to the Amu
Darya river, one of the region's two major water courses. The
neighboring countries cautioned water could be diverted from their
cotton and wheat fields. Uzbekistan claimed that water flows would
be seriously decreased in case the dam is built. But a World Bank
assessment gave the go-ahead to the major project.
Currently, Uzbekistan’s position has also changed and become more
tolerant. Thus, atmosphere for a water distribution accord appear
is suitable now, according to the expert.
“Tajikistan could construct that dam from its quota, but that could
also take years. Rogun is a part of CASA 1000 proposed by the U.S.
around 2005/6 or so together with a dam on Darin River in
Kyrgyzstan. Water levels in Darin fluctuate. Since 2007, water
levels were so low that even Bishkek had to face electricity load
shedding,” he said.
CASA1000 has lost its importance and that now remains only on
paper, as Afghanistan is no more interested in the electricity
project and has withdrawn, Kazi noted.
“As long as the Afghanistan stalemate continues, I doubt if
Tajikistan could attract international investments other than from
China,” he added.
CASA-1000 is an interregional electricity transmission project in
Central and South Asia to connect four countries - Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. It is presupposed that the
project will create opportunities for the export of electricity
surplus in summer period from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to
Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Groundbreaking for the project took place on May 12, 2016 in
Tajikistan in a ceremony attended by the Kyrgyz, Tajik, and
Pakistani Prime Ministers, and is expected to be completed by the
end of 2018.
The project initially also included transfer of electricity to
Afghanistan, however the country abandoned its share of electricity
due to dearth of demand, hence Pakistan will receive 1,300
megawatts of electricity.
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Kamila Aliyeva is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @Kami_Aliyeva
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