Azernews.Az

Friday March 29 2024

IMF improves forecast for Azerbaijan's GDP growth

8 October 2015 10:42 (UTC+04:00)
IMF improves forecast for Azerbaijan's GDP growth

By Aynur Karimova

The International Monetary Fund has improved the economic growth of Azerbaijan to four percent in 2015, the updated World Economic Outlook report said.

Azerbaijan's GDP growth for the current year was predicted at 1.8 percent according to a previous report from the IMF published in June.

IMF has kept its forecast for economic growth unchanged at 2.5 percent for next year. And in 2020, the IMF predicts that Azerbaijan's economy will grow by 3.4 percent.

IMF experts believe that this year, global economic growth will be at the lowest level since the end of the financial crisis. Meanwhile, they expect that in subsequent years, the global economy and emerging economies will gradually recover.

Other financial institutions forecast Azerbaijan's economic growth at various levels. Earlier, the Asian Development Bank reported that it has kept its forecast for economic growth in Azerbaijan at a level of three percent in 2015 and at 2.8 percent in 2016.

The World Bank predicts a 2 percent growth in Azerbaijan's economy in 2015, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development kept the growth forecast at 1.5 percent for 2015-2016.

Fitch Ratings, in turn, expects real GDP growth to reach 2.3 percent.

Economists believe that the main factors that can affect the dynamics of the GDP are oil prices, the global competitiveness of the national currency, and funds allocated from the state budget for investment.

The total volume of the country's GDP in the first half of 2015 amounted to 26.3 billion manats, or 5.7 percent more than in the same period of last year, according to Azerbaijan's State Statistics Committee.

Azerbaijan plans to export products worth $26.8 billion in 2015, some $2.7 billion of which will be goods in the non-oil sector. The Azerbaijani government predicts the share of non-oil sector in Azerbaijan's GDP to be at 65.1 percent for 2015, which is 5.5 percent higher than the forecasts for 2014 and 8.5 percent higher than in 2013.

Inflation will be at 5 pct

According to the IMF report, the average annual inflation in Azerbaijan will be roughly five percent in 2015, some 4.2 percent in 2016, and 4.5 percent in 2020.

Also, the surplus of Azerbaijan's payment balance in the current year will amount to three percent of GDP, 2.7 percent of GDP in 2016, and 5.1 percent of GDP in 2020.

It is expected that Azerbaijan will see one of the lowest inflation rates in Central Asia. According to ADB forecasts, inflation will hold steady at six percent in 2015 and 5.5 percent in 2016.

Earlier, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan said that it forecasts inflation in Azerbaijan to be in the single-digit range, while the IMF reported that it predicts Azerbaijan's average annual inflation at 7.9 percent in 2015.

According to Azerbaijan's State Statistics Committee, the inflation rate for the first six months of 2015 stood at 3.5 percent.

--

Aynur Karimova is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @Aynur_Karimova

Follow us on Twitter @AzerNewsAz

Loading...
Latest See more