Azerbaijan's economic growth to stand at 2.5-3 pct, expert says
By Aynur Karimova
Azerbaijan's economic growth is expected to stand at 2.5-3 percent by the end of the year. Greater economic growth will be possible when the country's economy will no longer be dependent on the oil sector, economist Ogtay Hagverdiyev told local media.
"Azerbaijan stands out from the general negative trend of the CIS countries. Our country has a more stable and predictable development of the economy, which is important. Our country has good economic potential," he noted.
The expert believes that in order to ensure economic growth, Azerbaijan should continue to develop the non-oil sector of the economy.
"Today, this process is underway, but its result will only be observed in 2-5 years. This is a good strategy for a successful future," he added.
In the first quarter of 2015, the GDP of CIS countries decreased by 2.7 percent compared to the same period last year, as noted by the 'Macromonitor of CIS' published by the Research Department of the Eurasian Development Bank. According to the bank's experts, only Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, and Moldova are the exceptions from a general negative trend, where for various reasons economic growth accelerated.
The report says GDP growth accelerated in Azerbaijan due to the positive dynamics of oil and gas production and a stable situation in the oil sector.
The State Statistics Committee reported that in January-May 2015, Azerbaijan's GDP growth increased by 5.3 percent compared to the same period last year, reaching $21.3 billion manats.
World financial institutions forecast Azerbaijan's economic growth at various levels. The World Bank forecasts a 1.5 percent GDP growth in Azerbaijan, while the International Monetary Fund expects a 0.6 percent economic growth in the country for 2015.
The Asian Development Bank expects that the GDP growth in Azerbaijan will be equal to 3 percent in 2015. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) kept the forecast of economic growth in Azerbaijan in 2015-2016 at 1.5 percent.
Economists believe that the main factors that can affect the dynamics of GDP are oil prices, global competitiveness of the national currency, and funds allocated from the state budget for investment.
The share of industrial production in the economy amounted to 41.5 percent (24.471 billion manats) in 2014, according to Azerbaijan's State Statistics Committee. Statisticians report that the real non-oil GDP of Azerbaijan in January-April 2015 amounted to 11.035 billion manats with a growth rate of 6.8 percent.
--
Aynur Karimova is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @Aynur_Karimova
Follow us on Twitter @AzerNewsAz