Azernews.Az

By Sara Rajabova

The recent incidents on the contact line of Armenian and Azerbaijani troops reveal that the long-lasting Nagorno-Karabakh is not frozen and a new war can break out at any time.

As the previous and current methods of resolving this problem were ineffective, a new mechanism is required to change the status quo and bring peace to the region.

“A new kind of negotiation mechanism must be established for the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as the previous one which existed through a generation, has proven to be ineffective,” UK Transatlantic & Caucasus Studies Institute Director Ziba Norman told Trend Agency.

Peace talks, mediated by Russia, France and the U.S. through the OSCE Minsk Group, are underway on the basis of a peace outline proposed by the Minsk Group co-chairs and dubbed the Madrid Principles. However, the negotiations have been largely fruitless so far despite the efforts of the co-chair countries over 20 years.

Norman noted that the main mediators in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict - the U.S. and Russia - have very different views of how the post-Cold War world should be structured.

“Against this backdrop, it is difficult to see how a peace process structured by such sponsors will yield lasting results,” she said.

Norman went on to say that Armenians’ attempts to disturb the relative peace in the region lies in their desire to string out the negotiation process on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and create a de facto state in the occupied territories.

Armenia occupied over 20 percent of Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territory, including Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent regions, after laying territorial claims against its South Caucasus neighbor that caused a brutal war in the early 1990s. After occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh region, Armenia has created a separatist regime - so called “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic” in Azerbaijan’s lands.

Armenian leadership and Armenian lobby in different countries attempt to achieve the recognition of the separatist region via various methods.

Norman believes the international community should resist such efforts. “The international community does not recognize the existence of such a state. It must resist all efforts at further fragmentation,” she said.

Norman said there may be those that see fragmentation as a benefit to their national goals, but this is not in the interests of the people of the region.

In the meantime, though both sides of the conflict suffer from the problem, Armenia is a big looser. Thus, as a result of its aggressive policy, Armenian has no diplomatic and economic relation with Azerbaijan, as well as Turkey. It has been sidelined from all the energy projects developed on Azerbaijan’s initiative. The economic situation in the country is miserable with high rate of unemployment and huge amount of emigrants to foreign country. It depends on the Russian support.

Norman noted that Azerbaijan and Armenia are drastically different in terms of development level.

She said Armenia, with its weak economy largely depends on Russia’s support. This comes as Azerbaijan’s stability and oil wealth are important elements for the energy security of the West.