Azerbaijani expert on West’s attitude to Azerbaijan, Iran’s n-program, oil prices
Trend Agency conducted a Q&A with Sidqi Shevket, Ph.D.
in Law, head of the Azeri Daily website, to discuss such topics as
West's attitude towards Azerbaijan, Iran's nuclear program of Iran,
oil prices and more.
Question: How do you assess the international response to
the incident with the Armenian helicopter? How in fact is
Azerbaijan’s position currently being estimated in the West - as of
an ally? Why is it possible to observe the so-called ‘witch-hunt’
against Azerbaijan in the Western media, given that Azerbaijan has
already proved to be a genuine ally of the West? Can we then talk
about the impact of certain influential groups on the western
politicians?
Answer: In general, the international response to
the incident with the downed Armenian helicopter was quite
predictable. We have heard before those time after time repeated
statements about the inadmissibility of escalation of the conflict,
the need to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by peaceful means,
etc. Probably, it would be naive on our part to expect that a
violation of the airspace of Azerbaijan by Armenian military
aviation could somehow impel the international community to act
more forcefully against Armenia as an aggressor.
At the same time, the Armenian side too should not expect any
condemnation of Azerbaijan for the downed helicopter. Perhaps now
more than ever, the international community, at least in words, has
estimated the incident, well, not quite objectively yet, but at any
rate without a clear bias towards one side. As for the West’s
attitude towards Azerbaijan, it is worth noting that this attitude
is not only determined by the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, but
also by many other factors of a geopolitical nature.
As you know, Azerbaijan is situated in an extremely important
geostrategic position at the junction of transport corridors
North-South and East-West. Therefore, the foreign policy of our
country interests not only our immediate neighbours, but also many
other global players. And no matter how balanced is our foreign
policy, there will always be centers of power, which will be
dissatisfied with one or another of our initiatives in the
international arena.
At the same time Azerbaijan indeed proved itself a reliable ally of
the West, at least in matters of energy security and the fight
against terrorism, which today is so important for the West and the
European Union in particular. However, if in the past Baku’s
relatively neutral position suited the powers competing at the
geopolitical field, today, these key actors crossed the Rubicon,
and there is a strong likelihood that the world is once again
entering an era of a new Cold War. In this case, it will be
extremely difficult to remain neutral. Apparently, the era of
balanced foreign policy is nearing its end.
With regard to certain groups, which could influence the Western
governments, then, first of all, it would be worth noting a rather
strong and cohesive Armenian diaspora, which, in particular, has a
special weight in such key countries as the United States and
France. The fact that the OSCE Minsk Group consists of these two
countries, plus Russia, whose preferences are well known, leads us
to question the impartiality of this structure. If the co-chairs do
come out with balanced and diplomatically consistent statements,
including about the latest incident, it does not mean that they, or
rather the countries they represent, act in the same manner.
Unfortunately, here as well we are faced with the notorious policy
of double standards, well, even triple ones, I would say. Of
course, we need to work more closely with these countries,
especially in the sphere of information policy, which today is not
at the proper level.
Q: How do you think will the talks between Iran and ‘5+1’
go, given that at the last meeting an agreement has been postponed
once more?
A: Indeed, despite all efforts to reach a
comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear program by the
November 24 deadline, the sides failed to do so. And the extension
of the deadline obviously raises many questions about what
direction will the sides now move in, and, in general, whether such
an agreement is possible at all. However, there are no reasons yet
to talk about the failure of the negotiations. And that is a
plus.
The parties have agreed on a new seven-month extension of the
negotiation process; and they do speak quite optimistically about
the prospects of reaching the final agreement. Both Iran and the
United States expressed confidence that such an agreement would
still be concluded. Apparently, the parties today genuinely benefit
from such an extension of the negotiation process, as the only
alternative would be their complete failure. And the latter is
fraught with major shocks for quite an unstable region of the
Greater Middle East.
One way or another, but even during the last round of negotiations,
the parties apparently managed to get closer on a number of
positions, which gives hope to reach the long waited comprehensive
agreement in the new year. Especially, since the Republican control
of the US Congress gained at this year’s midterm elections is also,
oddly enough, of some help to the American delegation at the
talks.
Any problems with the tightening of sanctions against Iran can now
be attributed to political opponents, whereas any breakthroughs can
be presented to the Iranian side as a manifestation of the White
House’s good will. Kind of a carrot and stick tactics. And given
Iran’s current somewhat uneasy economic situation, Tehran will
still have to compromise in order to finally get rid of the
suffocating sanctions imposed by the West. In any case, the parties
are clearly aware of their responsibility in this explosive
geopolitical situation.
Q: The trend of falling oil prices continues at the world
oil market; the price has fallen to the lowest level in four years.
What in your opinion is the optimal oil price today? And to what
extent could non-OPEC oil-producing countries, such as Russia,
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan affect the situation at the market; and
is it possible in the future to increase their role in the
management of price trends?
A: First, I would like to note that the drop in
oil prices is not solely the result of objective tendencies of the
world economy. Although the market is still the basic factor. The
market determines the demand and supply, on basis of which the
price of oil or any other commodity is formed. At the same time,
geopolitical factors, certainly, play a very important role here.
The largest oil fields are known to be highly concentrated in
volatile regions; and any political crisis in one or another
oil-producing country or a group of them immediately echoes at the
world markets.
As for the impact on global markets, probably in the near future it
will be very difficult to undermine the leading position of the
OPEC oil cartel, which actually has been created to coordinate the
actions of the largest oil producing nations to build their
competitive prices.
It is worth noting that according to the available official data,
the OPEC countries together produce about 33 million barrels of
crude oil per day, accounting for nearly 40 percent of world
production. In addition, the OPEC member-countries account for
almost 81 percent of all proven reserves of crude oil in the
world.
The combined share of Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in world
oil production is only just over 18 percent. That is not taking
into account the fact that recently Russian production rates
declined slightly. In order to have an impact on pricing in the oil
sector it would be necessary to create a new cartel at least equal
to the OPEC, and to do so will be even more difficult in the
future, given the mentioned figure of proven global oil reserves.
And we should bear in mind that interests of the oil-producing
countries, which are outside the OPEC, are too different for them
to manage reducing to a common denominator. Thus, today, the last
word remains with the OPEC.