Experts predict no breakthrough in Russian-Georgian relations
By Jamila Babayeva
Recent change of power in Georgia, which broke its diplomatic relations with Russia since a brief war in 2008, makes hopeful for normalization of relations between these two neighbors.
Experts note a thaw in relations between Russia and Georgia, but still are not optimistic for the soonest warming up in ties.
Russian political expert Aleksey Vlasov thinks that there is a thaw in Russian-Georgian relations and it concerns both the rhetorics and the practical matters - trade, tourism, and humanitarian cooperation.
"However, the full breakthrough should not be expected," Vlasov told Azernews. "Russia will not refuse to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia."
Tbilisi broke off relations with Moscow in August 2008 when Moscow crushed a Georgian assault to reassert control over two rebel regions -- South Ossetia and Abkhazia -- and later recognized the regions. Georgia announced the two unrecognized republics as occupied territories in September 2008.
He believes that 2014 should open up fundamentally new opportunities for humanitarian communications.
"A public opinion in Georgia about the prospects for rapprochement between Moscow and Tbilisi has changed. A change of public sentiment vector is probable to become the most important shift in 2013," he added.
Georgia's President Giorgi Margvelashvili has recently said the country is taking all steps to ease tensions in relations with Russia.
He made the remarks in response to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's statement issued on December 18. Lavrov said Russia is not ready to abolish the visa regime with Georgia, but advocates the development of humanitarian ties.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin said Moscow could restore visa-free regime with Georgia, the issue should be discussed at the expert level.
He noted that his personal attitude towards the current Georgian government has changed.
Georgian political analyst Gela Vasadze is not optimistic and thinks that it can hardly be called a thaw in relations between the two countries.
"This "thaw" is nothing but surrender by the Georgian authorities, and in terns of how they will succeed in this issue, a lot depends on the position of the Georgian society," he told Azernews.
He does not see any important shifts in Russia-Georgia relations in 2013.
As to permission of Georgian wine and agricultural goods into Russian market, it is simply an obligation set by the WTO, where both countries enter, Vasadze believes.
The situation even becomes worse if to add here Russia's demarcation activity on the occupation line, he thinks.
He said the problem in relations between Russia and Georgia are systemic in nature.
"Russia cannot and does not want to solve the problem of the occupation, as it will be the collapse of Moscow's entire policy over the last ten years," Vasadze stressed.
He also predicts attempts to restore the rail link through Abkhazia, which has been closed since the beginning of 1990.
"This is quite a powerful tool in the hands of the Kremlin, and if happens, it will seriously hit both Georgia's and Azerbaijan's interests," Vasadze believes.
Resumption of railway link through Abkhazia is not an easy task, as this move can unblockade Armenia, who has turned out isolated from all regional projects due to its aggressive policy against neighboring Azerbaijan and Turkey. Indeed, it will not be in the interest of neither Azerbaijan, nor Georgia.
There is an optimistic mood, but still too many obstacles on the way of normalization of relations between Georgia and Russia, giving a pessimistic mood to mutual efforts.