Armenia decisions heavily depending on Russia’s approval
By Mushvig Mehdiyev
Armenian leadership's foreign policy does not satisfy all Armenians in and out of the country. The country's integration into the Eurasian Economic Union, as well as its continuing aspirations towards the European Union have cast a shadow on a well-determined foreign policy course in the post-Soviet country.
Only 20 days after the start of its membership at the EEU, a Russia-led trade bloc, Armenia recalled the good old days with the EU to bring back the signing of Association Agreement on agenda. Even Johannes Hahn, EU Commissioner, hoped for signing the deal with Yerevan in near future.
But the experts called on Yerevan not to pin a hope to a quick rapprochement with Europe.
Boris Navasardyan, Armenian Coordinator at the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Platform, believes that Armenia cannot put a pent to any document without Russia’s approval.
"Until September 3, 2013, we thought that Armenia will sign a versatile Association Agreement with the EU, similar to the deals inked with Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. But it didn’t happen. So, the agreement planned to be signed today is different from the one in 2013," he said, adding that the novel agreement will bear a distinctive quality.
Navasardyan expressed serious doubts over Armenian authorities' independence to take a step towards the EU.
"When Armenia announced it was ready to sign the AA deal, particularly its political chapter, our officials had already been aware of its impossibility," he added.
Today, the situation is not the same as it was in 2013 given Armenia's obligations under the EEU membership, said Navasardyan.
"Given that Armenia considers Russia’s possible position on the signing of any document of the same kind, signing a deal with the EU depends on Russia, but not on our authorities," he noted.
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, Founder of the Turkey-based Center for the International Strategy and Security Studies, told AzerNews that Armenia seriously depends on Russia and doesn’t like to be the next Ukraine.
"The main concern of Armenia is based on the fear of being the next Ukraine, so it has no choice but to follow Russia. But, at the same time, it needs Europe. European help is vital for Armenia amid the so-called "Armenian genocide" centennial in 2015, as well as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Russia will not be able to meet Armenia's needs in near future given its current economic situation. That's why Yerevan is now going through a very hard period," he said.
Kayts Minasyan, an expert at the French Center for Strategic Survey, said sovereignty of Armenia is of a contradictory nature.
"Armenian authorities emerged to be weak and inferior to the Russian side following the incident in Gyumri. Particularly, Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan is the weakest. It would be better to ask him, whether he is Armenia's foreign minister or head of a Russian foreign ministry's branch," he said.
Russia's every step inflicts a direct negative impact on Armenia, said Gagik Makaryan, Head of the Association of Employers of Armenia.
Makaryan believes that Russia's war with Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions are seriously deteriorating the political and economic atmosphere in Armenia
"Accession to the EEU does not mean that Armenia will have favorable conditions for cooperation with the union's members, including Belarus and Kazakhstan," he said.
As a way of escape from the catastrophe, Makaryan called on Armenian authorities to pay more attention to the developing Arab countries and boost cooperation with them to settle the current economic problems in the country.
- - -
Follow Mushvig Mehdiyev on Twitter: @Mushviggo
Follow us on Twitter: @AzerNews